The first few months of 2026 witnessed a crucial turning point for the Vietnamese steel market after a prolonged period of decline. Amidst ongoing global economic uncertainties, the Vietnamese steel industry is showing clear signs of recovery, driven by public investment, improved demand for civil construction, and strengthened trade protection policies.
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Global Market: Pressure from Oversupply Remains
On an international level, the global steel market in the first quarter of 2026 continued to face pressure from oversupply, particularly in Asia. China – the world’s largest steel consumer and producer – has yet to see a strong recovery in its real estate and construction sectors. This has kept domestic demand low, leading to downward price pressure on many finished steel products such as construction steel and hot-rolled coil (HRC).
Meanwhile, international iron ore prices remained stable around $99–102 per ton, helping to prevent significant fluctuations in input costs for steel mills. However, the abundant supply from China and several other major exporting countries has continuously increased, creating significant competitive pressure on importing markets, including Vietnam.
Conversely, the US market saw more positive developments thanks to stable domestic demand and tight trade protectionist policies, helping steel prices maintain a relatively stable level.
Vietnam’s Steel Industry Growth: Opportunities and Challenges
In Vietnam, the steel industry is entering a new recovery cycle, primarily driven by the domestic market. The strong disbursement of public investment in areas such as transportation infrastructure, industrial parks, and civil construction has contributed to a resurgence in steel demand.
According to industry analysts, consumption of construction steel in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to increase by approximately 12% compared to the same period last year, while HRC consumption is projected to surge by as much as 30%. Steel prices are also trending upwards, recovering after a prolonged period of sharp decline from 2024–2025.
Forecasts for 2026 indicate that demand for construction steel could increase by approximately 10–12%, with HRC continuing to be the strongest growth group thanks to demand from industrial production and mechanical engineering.
Notably, Vietnam’s application of trade safeguard measures against imported steel, especially wide-gauge HRC from China, is creating more room for domestic businesses to increase their market share.
Hoa Phat Leads A New Growth Cycle
Amidst the overall recovery of the industry, Hoa Phat Group continues to emerge as the biggest beneficiary thanks to its economies of scale, closed-loop production ecosystem, and superior domestic market share.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company recorded revenue of over VND 52,900 billion, a significant increase compared to the same period last year, while after-tax profit exceeded VND 9,000 billion – the highest level in many years. This improvement stemmed from increased domestic consumption, better profit margins thanks to the utilization of low-cost raw materials, and the recovery trend in steel prices.
In addition, businesses with strong domestic market foundations such as Hoa Sen and VNSteel are also expected to benefit in this new phase of the industry cycle.
Vietnam’s Steel Industry in Early 2026: A Pivotal Point in a New Growth Cycle
Export Businesses Continue to Face Difficulties
In contrast to the booming construction steel sector, businesses heavily reliant on exports are still facing significant pressure. Demand from the US and Europe is recovering slowly, while cheap steel from China continues to flood the ASEAN region, intensifying competition.
Nam Kim is one of the businesses clearly affected by the sharp decline in export volume in the first quarter of the year. Similarly, many other galvanized steel and steel trading businesses are still facing pressure to reduce profit margins due to low selling prices and increased financial costs.
Analysts believe that, given the incomplete recovery of global trade, the advantage will shift towards businesses with strong cost control, large-scale production, and a strong focus on the domestic market.
Cautious but Positive Outlook
Although the steel market in 2026 is considered to be entering a recovery phase, the overall industry outlook remains highly polarized. Factors such as raw material price fluctuations, global purchasing power, international trade policies, and competitive pressure from Chinese steel will continue to significantly influence market developments in the coming period.
However, with sustained positive public investment, a gradually recovering real estate market, and improved domestic construction demand, Vietnam’s steel industry has the opportunity to regain its growth momentum after years of volatility. This is considered a period of strong restructuring, where only businesses with sound financial capabilities, a complete production ecosystem, and appropriate market strategies can break through and expand their position.
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