2025 marked a turbulent year for the global steel market. However, the Vietnamese steel industry demonstrated remarkable resilience and breakthrough potential. Below are the most important market highlights from the past year, as well as strategic forecasts for 2026, emphasizing the growth and challenges of Vietnam’s steel.
- The steel industry faces numerous challenges amid a shift in focus towards the domestic market.
- Green Transition in Metal Surface Treatment: Commercial Advantages from the Turning Point of Replacing Cr6+ with Cr3+
- The Vietnamese Steel Industry’s Landscape Under Pressure for “Greening”: Survival Challenges and Opportunities for Transformation.
Highlights of the Steel Industry in 2025: Outstanding Records and Achievements of Vietnam’s steel
Contrary to many initial predictions and concerns, the domestic steel industry ended 2025 with record figures for the past five years.
- Production and consumption peak: Crude steel output in 2025 reached nearly 24.7 million tons, marking a 12% increase compared to 2024 and the highest level in the past 5 years. For the whole year, finished steel output reached over 32.26 million tons, an increase of 10%.
- Domestic consumption served as a support: Total consumption reached 31.62 million tons, an increase of nearly 9%, indicating that domestic businesses consumed almost all of the steel produced. Notably, in the first 11 months of 2025 alone, domestic consumption recorded a surge of 24.5%.
- Businesses reap big rewards: Leading companies have capitalized well on market opportunities. Notably, Vietnam Steel Corporation (VNSTEEL) recorded estimated system-wide profits exceeding 1,400 billion VND. This is the highest profit level in the last 5 years and more than double the figure for 2024.
- Successfully protecting the export chain: In 2025, Vietnamese steel products achieved positive results in anti-dumping and countervailing duty reviews in the EU, Canada, Australia, and India. Anti-dumping duties on steel exports from Vietnam reached 0% or were at a lower margin compared to other countries.
The Vietnamese steel market in 2025 is showing clear signs of recovery, a stark contrast to the gloomy outlook of the global market.
Market Comparison: Vietnam “Goes Against the Current” Amidst a Gloomy Global Landscape
The Vietnamese steel market in 2025 is showing clear signs of recovery, a stark contrast to the gloomy global outlook. This difference is evident in the following aspects:
- Regarding the overall context and consumption demand: While the global market faces a gloomy situation, fierce competition, and sharply falling steel prices, global steel demand has shown virtually no growth. Typically in China, the prolonged real estate crisis has significantly weakened domestic steel consumption. Conversely, the Vietnamese market is experiencing strong growth momentum thanks to the recovery of the real estate sector, accelerated public investment disbursement, and measures to protect domestic production.
- Regarding production output: The contrast is also clearly shown in the statistics. The total crude steel production of 70 countries worldwide in 2025 will only reach 1.8 billion tons, a 2% decrease compared to 2024. In China alone, production has decreased by 4.4%, marking the lowest level since 2018 when it fell below 1 billion tons (reaching 960.81 million tons). In contrast to this decline, Vietnam’s steel industry has surged with a 12% increase in crude steel production compared to 2024.
- Regarding export activities: Faced with the pressure of oversupply due to declining domestic consumption, China has continuously boosted metal exports, creating record-breaking export waves. Conversely, Vietnam’s steel exports recorded a significant decline, with total export volume decreasing by 20% (reaching over 10 million tons) and value decreasing by 27% compared to the same period last year. The main reason for the slowdown in Vietnam’s steel exports is weak demand from the global market, combined with the continuous erection of trade protection barriers by many countries.
Forecast of Steel Industry Trends (First Half of 2026)
Entering 2026, the Vietnamese construction steel industry faces a new growth cycle accompanied by international challenges.
- Continuing the consumption growth trend: The Vietnamese steel industry is projected to experience strong growth of 8-10% in 2026. Notably, the upward trend in construction steel consumption is expected to continue until the end of the first quarter of 2026.
- Macroeconomic drivers: The main growth drivers in the coming period will continue to come from public investment policies (airports, highways), the recovery of residential real estate, and large-scale projects starting to become operational.
- Controlling import pressure: From January 1, 2026, China will implement a steel export licensing mechanism, which is expected to create administrative barriers and significantly reduce the amount of steel imported from China to Vietnam.
- Strengthening trade defense measures: To protect the domestic market in the coming period, Vietnam is currently conducting an investigation into circumvention of trade defense measures on wide-width hot-rolled steel and reviewing measures on H-shaped steel.
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