HOT-ROLLED COIL EXPORTS SPIKE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR VIETNAM’S STEEL INDUSTRY

• VIETNAM RISES TO THE TOP 10 LARGEST STEEL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD

• FOR THE FIRST TIME, VIETNAM SUCCESSFULLY PRODUCES SPECIALIZED STEEL FOR HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLES.

• VIETNAMESE STEEL INDUSTRY STRENGTHENS DOMESTIC TRADE DEFENSE AND ENHANCES ITS OWN CAPACITY FOR BREAKTHROUGH IN THE NEW PHASE

Hot-rolled steel coils are expected to experience a strong surge in 2026.

The Vietnamese steel market is showing positive growth signals as hot-rolled coil (HRC) consumption increased sharply in the first months of 2026. In particular, HRC exports have surged, reflecting the increasing competitiveness of Vietnamese steel companies in the international market.

According to data from the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), in the first four months of 2026, sales of hot-rolled steel coils reached 3.33 million tons, a 25% increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, exports reached nearly 602,000 tons, almost double the amount exported during the same period in 2025.

In April alone, HRC production reached over 916,000 tons, a 37% increase compared to the same period last year. This result shows a strong recovery in market demand and reflects the effectiveness of policies protecting the domestic steel industry.

Anti-dumping duties create an incentive for domestic production.

One of the key factors driving domestic HRC consumption is the trade safeguard measures applied by Vietnam to imported steel.

From 2025, Vietnam has applied anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) imported from China, with rates ranging from 23.1% to 27.8%. By early April 2026, the provisional duty rate was further increased to 27.83% for certain wide-width HRC products.

Experts believe that this policy has significantly reduced the amount of cheap steel imports, creating favorable conditions for domestic manufacturers to expand their market share and increase their production capacity.

In addition, the wave of public investment along with a series of key transportation infrastructure projects being implemented nationwide continues to be an important driving force boosting steel consumption demand.

Geopolitical tensions create export opportunities.

In addition to benefiting from the domestic market, the Vietnamese steel industry also recognizes significant opportunities arising from fluctuations in the international market.

According to industry experts, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant decline in exports of steel slabs from Iran. This has forced many steelmakers worldwide to seek alternative sources of finished HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) products.

Thanks to increasingly improved production capacity and a stable supply, Vietnamese businesses have quickly taken advantage of opportunities to expand exports. This is considered one of the main reasons for the dramatic increase in HRC exports in the first few months of the year.

Many experts predict that the demand for HRC imports from Vietnam may continue to remain high if the global geopolitical situation does not stabilize soon.

The Vietnamese steel market is showing positive growth signs as hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel consumption increased sharply in the first months of 2026.

HRC prices have risen sharply, putting pressure on downstream businesses.

Alongside the growth in production and exports, the price of hot-rolled steel coils is also on a strong upward trend.

The average HRC price in April 2026 reached approximately US$528.5/ton, a 10% increase compared to the previous month and nearly a 19% increase compared to the same period in 2025. By mid-May, the trading price had risen to around US$610/ton.

Major domestic manufacturers such as Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh have been continuously adjusting their selling prices upwards to reflect the increase in input material costs as well as the upward trend in world market prices.

However, this development has put significant pressure on downstream galvanized steel and steel product businesses. With raw material costs accounting for a large proportion of the cost structure, the continuous increase in HRC prices has forced many businesses to adjust their selling prices to maintain profitability.

Recently, a number of galvanized steel sheet manufacturers have announced price increases to compensate for rising raw material costs.

Coated steel businesses face many challenges.

While manufacturers of construction steel and HRC are benefiting from growing domestic demand, the galvanized steel sheet sector is facing more pressure.

Besides rising raw material costs, businesses are also affected by anti-dumping investigations in many major export markets. Recently, Australia has considered the possibility of initiating an anti-dumping investigation against galvanized steel exported from Vietnam.

These developments are posing significant challenges for businesses with a large proportion of exports, forcing them to constantly adjust their business strategies and expand their markets in order to minimize risks.

Positive outlook, but caution is needed.

Experts assess that the Vietnamese steel market still has significant growth potential in 2026 thanks to the recovery of the construction industry and the accelerated disbursement of public investment.

However, the industry’s prospects will continue to depend on many factors such as global raw material price movements, international trade conditions, trade protection policies, and the ability of businesses to adapt to market fluctuations.

The strong growth of hot-rolled steel coils is opening up great opportunities for the Vietnamese steel industry. Simultaneously, enhancing competitiveness, diversifying export markets, and controlling production costs will be key to helping businesses maintain sustainable growth in the coming period.